Modeling toxo in meat

Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that is responsible for approximately 24% of deaths attributed to foodborne pathogens in the United States.

doug.cats.jun.14It is thought that a substantial portion of human T. gondii infections is acquired through the consumption of meats. The dose-response relationship for human exposures to T. gondii-infected meat is unknown because no human data are available. The goal of this study was to develop and validate dose-response models based on animal studies, and to compute scaling factors so that animal-derived models can predict T. gondii infection in humans. Relevant studies in literature were collected and appropriate studies were selected based on animal species, stage, genotype of T. gondii, and route of infection. Data were pooled and fitted to four sigmoidal-shaped mathematical models, and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. Data from a mouse study were selected to develop the dose-response relationship.Exponential and beta-Poisson models, which predicted similar responses, were selected as reasonable dose-response models based on their simplicity, biological plausibility, and goodness fit. A confidence interval of the parameter was determined by constructing 10,000 bootstrap samples. Scaling factors were computed by matching the predicted infection cases with the epidemiological data. Mouse-derived models were validated against data for the dose-infection relationship in rats. A human dose-response model was developed as P (d) = 1–exp (–0.0015 × 0.005 × d) or P (d) = 1–(1 + d × 0.003 / 582.414)−1.479. Both models predict the human response after consuming T. gondii-infected meats, and provide an enhanced risk characterization in a quantitative microbial risk assessment model for this pathogen.

 Development of Dose-Response Models to Predict the Relationship for Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Associated with Meat Consumption

Risk Analysis, 19 October 2015

M Guo, A Mishra, R Buchanan, J Dubey, D Hill, H Gamble, J Jones, X Du, and A Pradhan